This Week in P2P: South African Whales Spotted #40

October 6, 2022

A weekly round-up of P2P Bitcoin trading activity across the top 10 African markets on LocalBitcoins. Charts showing long term trends can be found here.

Africa Combined: For the week ended 2 October, Africa Combined* volume on LocalBitcoins was $1.69 million, which represented a 24% improvement on the previous week’s volume of $1.37 million. We haven’t seen volume this high at the Africa Combined level since mid-July. Despite 9/10 of the top markets showing volume growth last week, 75% of the increase at the Africa level was driven by an unrelenting SA that continues to close in on Nigeria for the top spot in YTD volume. Transactions came in at 5,141 for the week ended 2 October, which represented a 6% improvement on the previous week’s count of 4,832.

Nigeria: Nigeria’s volume for the week ended 2 October was $504.6K, which represented a 7% improvement on the previous week’s volume of $471.1K. This is the first time since mid-July that Nigeria’s weekly volume has been above $500K. The recovery of Nigeria’s volume in USD terms is being held back by the steep devaluation of the Naira this year. We aggregate Nigeria’s LocalBitcoins trading volume in both USD and Naira terms, and based on that data, the Naira has fallen 27% against USD so far this year. Transactions came in at 1,428 for the week ended 2 October, which represented a 2% improvement on the previous week’s count of 1,404.

South Africa: SA’s volume for the week ended 2 October was $744.1K, which represented a 49% improvement on the previous week’s volume of $499.6K. This is the highest SA volume we’ve seen since the first week of June. Transactions came in at 1,144 for the week ended 2 October, which represented a 7% improvement on the previous week’s count of 1,074. The gap between Nigeria and SA for the top spot in YTD volume terms now sits at $930.4K as of the week ended 2 October, down from $1.17 million in the previous week. Although SA posted impressive growth last week, two factors weigh against rushing to conclude that the boom times are back. First, SA has repeatedly shown a pattern this year of opening strong in the first week of the month, before retreating in the weeks that follow. Second, SA’s transaction counts are still low and only grew by 7% in the week of 2 October. Low transaction growth combined with high volume growth suggests whale activity rather than a return of the crowds. The data tells us that 16% of the volume in the week ended 2 October came from a single transaction of 6.36 BTC on 26 September and 48 transactions were responsible for over 50% of the volume in that week.

Kenya: Kenya’s volume for the week ended 2 October was $293.1K, which represented a 10% improvement on the previous week’s volume of $266.3K. Transactions came in at 1,672 for the week ended 2 October, which represented a 7% increase on the previous week’s count of 1,561. 2022 has been a tough year for the Kenyan market on LocalBitcoins. Weekly volume peaked in mid-January at $806.2K and has been declining slowly ever since. At the beginning of the year, a distinguishing feature of the Kenyan market was its high transaction count, with the market regularly eclipsing the combined transaction count of Nigeria and South Africa each week. Transactions have since been on a steady decline to the extent that Nigeria’s weekly transaction counts are now approaching Kenya’s.

Morocco: Morocco’s volume for the week ended 2 October was $29.8K, which represented a 63% improvement on the previous week’s volume of $18.3K. Transactions came in at 98 for the week ended 2 October, which represented a 3% decline on the previous week’s count of 101.

Tanzania: TZ’s volume for the week ended 2 October was $50.4K, which represented a 24% improvement on the previous week’s volume of $40.6K. Transactions came in at 240 for the week ended 2 October, which represented an 23% increase on the previous week’s count of 195.

Egypt: Egypt’s volume for the week ended 2 October was $17.9K, which represented a 44% decline on the previous week’s volume of $32.0K. Transactions came in at 127 for the week ended 2 October, which represented an 11% decline on the previous week’s count of 142.

Botswana: Botswana’s volume for the week ended 2 October was $24.5K, which represented a 23% improvement on the previous week’s volume of $19.9K. Transactions came in at 248 for the week ended 2 October, which represented a 22% increase on the previous week’s count of 203.

Zambia: Zambia’s volume for the week ended 2 October was $9.9K, which represented a 20% improvement on the previous week’s volume of $8.3K. Transactions came in at 51 for the week ended 2 October, which represented a 24% increase on the previous week’s count of 41.

Angola: Angola’s volume for the week ended 2 October was $4.6K, which represented a 107% improvement on the previous week’s volume of $2.2K. Transactions came in at 13 for the week ended 2 October, which represented a 225% increase on the previous week’s count of 4.

Ghana: Ghana’s volume for the week ended 2 October was $1.8K, which represented a 281% improvement on the previous week’s volume of $467. Transactions came in at 22 for the week ended 2 October, which represented a 38% increase on the previous week’s count of 16.

* Africa Combined is the aggregate of 20 African markets on LocalBitcoins that we currently aggregate data on. USD volumes are USD equivalent, meaning they are converted from local currency volumes.

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